It's Playoff Time!!

By Ken Black: SPM Contributing Writer
Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008

The twelfth edition of the WNBA regular season is history. Eight of the league’s 14 teams have earned the right to play on in quest of their ultimate goal – the WNBA championship. There will be a new champion this year as the Phoenix Mercury did not qualify to defend their championship.

The top seeds in this battle royal of basketball are the Detroit Shock and the San Antonio Silver Stars, champions of the Eastern and Western Conferences, respectively. If these two should survive to the Finals to play each other, the Silver Stars get home court advantage because they had the best record in the league this year.

Here’s a look at each of the first round matchups:
 

Comments: The season series between these two teams was weird schedule wise. They played each other twice during the first 10 days of the regular season, when the Shock had Cheryl Ford but the Fever didn’t have Tamika Catchings, who was recovering from an Achilles injury. The next time they met was back on September 5th. This time, Catchings played for Indiana, but Ford had been lost for the season to a knee injury, so Detroit traded for Taj McWilliams-Franklin to replace Ford in the paint. The Shock made a statement in the third game by routing Indiana 90-68, whereas in the first two games Detroit won by only five and nine points respectively.

Analysis: Indiana has some work to do if they’re going to upset the defending Eastern Conference champion Shock. Catchings and Katie Douglas have to be on top of their game not only offensively, but defensively as well if they’re going to slow down Deanna Nolan and Katie Smith. Another factor: Can the Fever get enough from their bench to offset what Detroit gets from its in Plenette Pierson, Alexis Hornbuckle, and Sheri Sam? The last time these teams played these three players outscored Indiana’s bench 38-15, with Pierson getting 20. Lastly, the Fever must get strong performances on the interior from either Tammy Sutton-Brown or Ebony Hoffman, if not both, to mitigate Williams-Franklin, who has averaged nearly 11 points and seven boards since she’s been in a Shock uniform. Any help Catchings and Douglas can get from their teammates is desperately needed.

Prediction: Detroit plays on.

 

Comments: Connecticut won the first two games of the series and New York took the third on July 15th, making this the last time these two teams saw each other. The Liberty did win a game in Connecticut.

Analysis: The Sun are at their best when four or more of their players score in double figures, which is the result of moving the ball to create scoring opportunities. Lindsay Whalen and Asjha Jones are going to score, as evidenced by the 16.6 and 16.0 points per game they averaged respectively against the Liberty this year. The difference in the two Sun victories vs. their one loss, however, seems to be Tamika Whitmore, who scored a total of 35 points in the wins vs. only two in the loss. If she plays the way she did in the Sun victories, it will be tough for New York. Connecticut bolstered its bench by adding Svetlana Abrosimova and Erin Phillips after the Olympic break. New York must establish Janel McCarville on the interior. She shot a combined 12-28 in the three games vs. the Sun. for an average of 10 points per game, which is below her season average of 13.7 points per game on 53.5 percent shooting from the floor. The Liberty will need major contributions from their bench to win the series. Lisa Willis burned the Sun for 18 points in the Liberty win. Lately 6-5 Jessica Davenport has shown flashes of elevating her game. If she can use her size, New York has a shot. New York was outrebounded by an average of 2.1 boards a game during the regular season. Connecticut outrebounded them by 10 per game in the three games, so the Liberty must do a better job on the boards.

Prediction: Connecticut wins the series.

 

Comments: The regular season games between these teams were close as the home team won each game. The Monarchs won by nine in “Sac Town,” while the Silver Stars corralled and crowned the Monarchs by just one, and then by eight in the Alamo City. Ann Wauters was not with San Antonio when they lost in Sacramento.

Analysis: The Silver Stars won the Western Conference and also claimed the best record in the league. They have great team chemistry and have a great mix of cagey veterans with some very talented young players. San Antonio does a very good job of setting tempo, which somewhat masks their weakness on the boards. Becky Hammon, Sophia Young, and Wauters are their “Big 3,” but they’re not the entire story. Vickie Johnson, Erin Buescher, Ruth Riley, Helen Darling, Edwige Lawson-Wade, and rookie Morenike Atunrase all play their roles well and make coach Dan Hughes’ squad the favorite to advance to the franchise’s first WNBA championship series. Sacramento seemed to match up well with San Antonio in the regular season, though, and actually led going into the fourth quarter of the second game in San Antonio before losing by one point. The Monarchs were dealt a blow on Tuesday Sept 17th when the Sacramento Bee reported that power forward Rebekkah Brunson was lost for the rest of the year due to a knee injury. If Sacramento had a player who could hurt the Silver Stars on the inside, it was Brunson. Her 10.9 points and team-leading 7.1 rebounds per game will be missed. The Monarchs do have DeMya Walker back, as well as other capable inside players Adrian Williams-Strong, and rookies Laura Harper and Crystal Kelly. Nicole Powell and Kara Lawson must be able to knock down shots and Sacramento must avoid long scoring droughts in order to upset the Silver Stars. The Monarchs do play a lot of people and if they can make the series a test in athleticism, they have a chance, but it’s a slim one without Brunson.

Prediction: San Antonio advances to their second consecutive Western Conference final.

 

Comments: This match up is ALWAYS the best of the playoffs when it happens. Who wouldn't want to see the ‘war’ in the paint between Lauren Jackson and Lisa Leslie? Unfortunately, no one will be able to see that this time around, as Jackson had ankle surgery after the recently concluded Olympics and reportedly will be lost to the Storm until the championship round if Seattle makes it that far. Despite the loss of Jackson, the names in this series radiate star power – Lisa Leslie, Sue Bird, Sheryl Swoopes, Yolanda Griffith, DeLisha Milton-Jones, Swin Cash, and oh yes – “lady dunkenstein,”(ok I apologize for that) - the rookie known as Candace Parker.

Analysis: Jackson’s absence takes away the Storm’s almost unstoppable offensive threat in the post. However, she left the team five games before the Olympics began and hasn’t played with the team since. Yes this injury is devastating for the team, but they’re used to playing without her now and have proven they can win without her. To do so against the Sparks, who can boast the league’s best front line, Griffith, Camille Little, Ashley Robinson and possibly Kelly Santos have to do what Griffith does best to Leslie – frustrate her -- and do the same to Parker. Cash has to keep pace with Milton-Jones and not let get outhustled, as she did in the first game that LA won. Seattle’s bigs must limit the touches of Leslie, Parker and Milton-Jones and make sure to box them out. The Storm’s front court is not going to outscore LA’s, but if they can at least hold them to their average of 47.5 points at most in a game, and force LA’s backcourt to beat them, they have a chance in the series. Bird should have a field day against the Sparks guards. The key for LA is they must come with intensity, especially on the defensive end of the floor, hit the boards, and force the Storm to play up tempo where Parker really dazzles. The Sparks must find someone other than Milton-Jones to bury an outside shot. If they can hit from the outside, that’ll open up things on the inside for Leslie. Leslie is much better against Griffith if she can face up on her and try to beat her before the double team comes. Griffith is a master at crowding and bodying Leslie and that takes away Leslie’s angles to drive. If the Sparks can keep it at a fast tempo, defend in transition, and hit the outside shots, they win this series. If they can’t do any of this, they’re in trouble.

Prediction: Always a tough series to call. Just when it was thought the Sparks had “turned the corner” with their play after the Olympic break, they lost at home to Atlanta. However, they seem to come to play in playoff situations against the Storm. LA wins a tight series.