Thoughts on Women's Olympic Basketball - Day 3

By Ken Black: SPM NY Columnist (Commentary)
Posted Friday, August 15, 2008

Three games down, two to go. Yes, we’re down to the last two games of pool play before the ‘elite eight’ teams advance to the quarterfinals of the medal round.

A glance at the standings of Group A and Group B shows that the three medal favorites are performing as expected. The United States, Australia, and Russia are each undefeated at 3-0 and pretty much have distanced themselves from the rest of the field, as they’ve clinched berths into the playoff round. However, once the quarterfinals commence where all games are single elimination to the gold medal game, anything can happen. Which five of the remaining nine teams will join the medal favorites in the single elimination round? As of this moment that cannot be determined as only two of the other teams have 2 wins while five teams have 1 victory each. Outside of the “Big 3,” the other teams are pretty much even and that’s made for a tough, exciting, and very entertaining tournament to watch.

Let’s examine the status of the teams as the women enter into their fourth day of competition today:

AUSTRALIA (3-0, defeated Belarus 83-64, defeated Brazil 80-65, defeated Korea 90-62): The present world champions and group favorite has had a steady run so far, beating their opponents as expected without enduring a serious challenge. The Opals are averaging 84.3 points per game, shooting an impressive 52.2% from the field, 33.3% from the 3 point line. As a team from the free throw line they’re shooting 71.8%, which is good, but somehow this percentage seems low considering the shooters they have. Australia has pulled down the most rebounds of any team in the tournament as they average an Olympic-leading 44.3 boards a game. Lauren Jackson is leading a balanced attack scoring 14.7 points a game, with Suzy Batkovic averaging a somewhat surprising 14(and with grabbing 8.7 rebounds a game), Penny Taylor and Laura Summerton chipping in at 13.7 and 12.7 points a game respectively. This is a very good team that becomes a great team when clicking on all cylinders. Batkovic, when playing like this, gives the opposition another big to worry about in addition to Jackson. They are one of the favorites to win the gold and as long as they stay committed to rebound and play defense they will be tough to beat. The question on them however is when they are in a close game, or if they should encounter foul trouble to Jackson or Taylor, do they have the bench to rise to the occasion to get the job done? Last two games: Today – Latvia; Sunday – Russia. The game Sunday vs. Russia should decide who wins Group A.

RUSSIA (3-0, defeated Latvia 62-57, defeated Korea 77-72, defeated Belarus 71-65): Weren’t the Russians supposed to destroy these teams they’ve played? People are asking ‘what’s wrong with this team?’ My answer to that question is ‘the Russians are ok.’ Now whether they’re not playing well, are ‘playing possum’ to mask what they have for the later rounds, or maybe the three teams they’ve played are better than we thought, I don’t know. What I do know is as we get closer to the quarterfinals, they’ll get better. Yes they’ve been in close games, but what’s been constant with them in these games is whenever they needed a defensive stop, they got it, which is something the United States and Australia haven’t had to do yet. Russia is averaging 70 points a game so far shooting a respectable 46% from the floor, and an impressive 42.1% from beyond the arc. What’s a little disconcerting is the free throw percentage of 70.8. While you want to shoot at least 70% from the line as a team, there’s a 30% chance that free throws missed could cost you the game against the USA or Australia. The Russians are second in rebounding to the Aussies and if they can keep doing the job on the boards, they’ll be in every game they play. Any team that has Maria Stepanova, Ilona Korstin, and Becky Hammon along with the size the Russians have cannot be taken lightly and that’s an understatement. Coach Igor Grudin will have this team ready. Last two games: Today – Brazil; Sunday – Australia. Russia cannot get caught looking past Brazil to Australia. The Brazilians did present a minor challenge to Australia in the second half. Don’t be surprised if the Russians come into Sunday’s game extremely motivated to beat the Opals. The way the brackets are set up for the quarterfinals and beyond, when it comes to the United States and Australia, the scenario is simple: beat Australia Sunday and you’ll potentially only have to face 1 of them and that will be for the gold medal; lose to Australia Sunday, and you’ll potentially have to play both of them to win the gold medal. What would you do?

 

BELARUS (1-2, defeated Latvia 69-57, lost to Australia 83-64, lost to Russia 71-65)

KOREA (1-2, defeated Brazil 68-62 (OT), lost to Russia 77-72, lost to Australia 90-62)

LATVIA (1-2, defeated Brazil 79-78, lost to Russia 62-57, lost to Belarus 79-57)

Does it get any better than this? Three teams fighting for the last two quarterfinal spots, and the best part is one team must play the other two in its last two games, while the other two have one game each against the third team. Belarus may be hitting only 38% of its shots from the field thus far, and shooting a frigid 29.5% on treys, but they are by far the best free throw shooting team in the tournament at 80.7%. Put them on the free throw line and you pay. Last two games: Today – Korea; Sunday – Brazil. Obviously it’s great if Belarus can win both. However a win today is IMPERATIVE, because they would hold the head-to-head advantage over both Korea and Latvia in case there is a three-way tie for the last two spots.

Korea raised a few eyebrows with their overtime win over Brazil by withstanding a 53-31 rebounding disadvantage. However, they forced 29 Brazil turnovers and stole the ball from their South American opponent an unreal 14 times. This game wasn’t a fluke either as evidenced by their close loss to Russia, even though they were out-rebounded by a 34-12 margin. The Koreans shot 53% in this game, made 11 steals and rendered 6-8 Russian center Stepanova a non-factor, as she managed 6 points and 3 rebounds in 10 minutes of playing time. Last two games: Today – Belarus; Sunday – Latvia. The Koreans are in control of their destiny. Win both games and they’re into the quarterfinals.

Latvia impressed with a win over Russia in last week’s Diamond Ball Tournament Olympic tune-up, and almost beat the Russians again in their Olympic opener. Liene Jansone and Anete Jekabsone-Zogota are two exciting young players who are fun to watch. Latvia however at the moment is on the outside looking in for a spot in the quarterfinals. The loss to Belarus was huge and they need help in order to get into the playoffs. Last two games: Today – Australia; Sunday – Korea. Latvia will most likely lose to Australia today which would make them 1-3. If that is the case, they must defeat Korea Sunday.

BRAZIL (0-3, lost to Korea 68-62 (OT), lost to Australia 80-65, lost to Latvia 79-78): The Brazilians are in a mode of transition where they’re building for the future. They’re athletic, feisty, and don’t quit, all traits that bold well for the future. Currently they’re turning the ball over too much, not executing offensively consistently and they’re not getting the defensive stops they need to pull out victories. That comes with experience. Last two games: Today – Russia; Sunday – Belarus.

UNITED STATES (3-0, defeated Czech Republic 97-57, defeated China 108-63, defeated Mali 97-41): The world’s number 1 ranked team and defending Olympic gold medalists are riding a 28-game Olympic winning streak, and it doesn’t appear that streak will end in pool play. The Americans are averaging a whopping 100 points a game in their three victories and are serving notice they plan on winning their fourth consecutive gold medal. The USA is long, the most athletic team in the world and seem to have made the commitment to focus and defend. They are the only team in this tournament where comments are made that their bench is perhaps better than the starting 5. Speaking of the bench, the most impressive person off of it so far has been 6-6 reserve center Sylvia Fowles. She’s averaging 14 points and 9 boards. Starting center Lisa Leslie set an Olympic record by hitting all 7 of her shots against Mali. Point guard Sue Bird has run the offense to perfection, and reserve shooting guard Seimone Agustus has played very well offensively and especially defensively. You can’t sleep on people like Diana Tarausi, Tina Thompson, or Katie Smith. The USA doesn’t appear to have any glaring weaknesses and if they maintain high energy to play good aggressive focused defense, they will win the gold medal. China was supposed to present a test for the Americans in the second of their first three games and the red, white, and blue blew them out by 45. That could be a problem as they move on to tougher opponents because they haven’t been tested yet and once they are, how will they respond? They have pressed their opponents so far. Once the opponents become Spain, Australia, or Russia, can they in turn handle being pressed? Last two games: Today – Spain; Sunday – New Zealand. They should win Group B with a 5-0 record.

CHINA (2-1, defeated Spain 67-64, lost to the United States 108-63, defeated New Zealand 80-63): The hosts, coached by former Australia head coach Tom Maher, won a huge first game, as that win over Spain may get them the number 2 spot in this group behind the United States. China’s very skilled 6-5 center Chen Nan, leads the Olympic Tournament in scoring and rebounding. The Chinese could advance as far as the semifinals as long as they play as a team and help each other on the boards and on defense. This is a young yet very talented team that seems to enjoy playing together. Last two games: Today – Mali; Sunday – Czech Republic. China has a great shot at advancing to the quarterfinals with a 4-1 record.

SPAIN (2-1, lost to China 67-64, defeated New Zealand 85-62, defeated Czech Republic 74-55): Spain has great guards who get up and down the floor pushing the ball hard. They like to get you back on your heels defensively and attack the basket. China picked them up high once they got the ball and that seemed to slow Spain down. Point guard Alisa Aguilar, forward Amaya Valdemoro, who played in the WNBA, bring the energy to Spain’s attack. This is a dangerous team when they have the hot hand. Last two games: Today – United States; Sunday – Mali. Spain will advance to the quarterfinals with a likely record of 3-2.

CZECH REPUBLIC (1-2, defeated Mali 81-47, lost to the United States 97-57, lost to Spain 74-55): The Czech Republic is a young team that’s tall, but not overly quick that plays in spurts. Against United States, they jumped out to a 13-2 lead where they were moving the ball and draining 3 point shots from the ozone, but lost that lead quicker than when they gained it. They lost their composure when the USA made their runs. This is a team that will be competitive in two years, when they host the next World Championship. Last two games: Today – New Zealand; Sunday – China. The Czech Republic will advance to the quarterfinals with a likely record of 2-3.

NEW ZEALAND (1-2, defeated Mali 76-72, lost to Spain 85-62, lost to China 80-63): New Zealand continues to try to improve their program and will build on the win over Mali. They will not advance to the quarterfinal round and most likely finish 1-5 in the preliminaries. Last two games: Today – Czech Republic; Sunday – the United States.

MALI (0-3, lost to New Zealand 76-72, lost to Czech Republic 81-47, lost to the United States 97-41): The African champion came to these Olympics not expecting wins, but expecting to learn and get better by playing against better competition. Their best player, Hamchetou Maiga, a WNBA player with the Houston Rockets, was injured and lost for the rest of the Olympics in the Czech Republic game. Last two games: Today – China; Sunday – Spain.