The Best Damn WNBA Preview Ever - Western Conference

By Richard Cohen (Contributing Writer)
Posted Tuesday, May 13, 2008

It’s superstar central in the wild West this year as returning leaders try to mesh with big-name new arrivals in a conference that promises to provide plenty of high-octane, exciting basketball. Seattle and San Antonio have both made significant moves to improve, while the new high-profile double-act in LA is already creating headlines.

In contrast, Phoenix will be trying to defend its title without a central piece of the equation from a year ago, and Sacramento will similarly be fighting to hold on to their playoff spot despite newly created holes in their lineup. Following disappointing seasons in 2007, the young upstarts in Minnesota and veteran warriors in Houston may not have had the splashy offseasons seen elsewhere, but both have made smaller-name moves that could lead to positive strides this year.

-Scroll all the way down to the very end of this piece and you'll also find one man's desperate attempt to predict the final standings, playoff results and individual awards that'll be handed out in September. Please try to forget them within the next five months, unless I get really, really lucky. -

Click here for yesterday’s in-depth preview of the Eastern Conference.

 

Significant additions: Shannon Johnson, Matee Ajavon, Mwadi Mabika (in this list under protest – she stopped being significant several years ago)
Significant losses: Sheryl Swoopes, Roneeka Hodges (a match in insignificance with Mabika)

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Shannon Johnson
SG: Tamecka Dixon
SF: Hamchétou Maïga-Ba
PF: Tina Thompson
C: Michelle Snow

Bench includes: Sancho Lyttle, Ajavon, Mabika, Ashley Shields, Latasha Byears, Mistie Williams

New arena, new point guard, aging superstar jettisoned – but this team still feels old. The did-she-jump-or-was-she-pushed Swoopes saga is finally behind us and her considerable shadow is no longer looming over the franchise or being waited on as a savior. Unfortunately, that leaves the roster looking a lot like the one that drifted through an awful 2007 season and finished 13-21. And the other teams around them have only gotten better.

There are shreds of hope for Comets fans to cling to, though. They improved significantly last year once Tamecka Dixon was re-signed after being waived in preseason. This year she’ll be there from the start, and as long as her creaky bones hold together through the season, she’ll give them some drive and scoring from the backcourt that they sorely lacked for much of last year. Alongside her in the backcourt will be newly acquired point guard Shannon ‘Pee-Wee’ Johnson, yet another aging veteran added to Houston’s phalanx of them, but still a significant improvement on the series of backups that manned the position for the Comets last year. They’ll be hoping Johnson can effectively transition back into playing starter’s minutes after spending last year playing barely 15 minutes per game off Detroit’s bench. Fifth overall pick in the draft Matee Ajavon will likely be the first guard off the bench, or may even start to give Dixon the opportunity to resume her sixth woman role of a year ago. Ajavon should inject some extra spirit and energy into the backcourt and can hardly fail to be a significant improvement on last year’s first-round pick, Ashley Shields, who herself will be looking to pick up time at the off guard spot from the bench. She’ll need to have improved significantly during the offseason to see much of the court, even with the number of miles already clocked up by most of her teammates.

With Swoopes gone, the small forward slot is probably Hamchétou Maïga-Ba’s by default, and she did an admirable job filling in last year under difficult circumstances. Why Mwadi Mabika was signed as a free agent from Los Angeles is mystifying, when these days Maiga-Ba is essentially a younger, markedly better version. Mabika’s game tailed off dramatically at least two years ago and has shown little sign of rebounding, but as they’re paying her, she’ll presumably also get minutes at both wing spots. Tina Thompson will likely spend some time at small forward as well, considering that her game has continued to evolve further and further away from the rim as she’s gotten older.

Thompson is still the star of this team, and as long as she can stay healthy she’ll still put up impressive numbers. She managed a complete season last year, but it was the first time in 4 years she’d played more than 26 games, so expecting her to repeat that feat might be optimistic. Hopefully for her sake she’ll be on the court for fewer than the ridiculous 36 minutes per game she played last season, but the other post options in Houston are pretty much the same as in 2007. Michelle Snow had the chance to take a step forward last season as the obvious second option behind Thompson when Swoopes went down (considering they had no offense whatsoever from the backcourt for the first half of the season), but if anything, Snow regressed. Comets fans have pretty much given up on her ever becoming a truly dominant WNBA center, and her disappointing play the last couple of years makes that entirely justified. Sancho Lyttle showed some flashes of development last year as the third post, but it’s still based more in athleticism than true basketball skills. There’s talent there, but it’s certainly taking its sweet time emerging. The likes of Latasha Byears, Mistie Williams, and late draft pick Crystal Kelly round out the backups in the paint and offer little more than hustle and hope (and in the case of Byears, the occasional very hard foul).

It’s possible to view the upcoming Comets season with some optimism. They finished last year looking like a better team than their record suggested, and they’ve added an improved point guard in Johnson and an extra threat in Ajavon while losing practically nothing (Swoopes was essentially already gone). Moving from the cavernous Toyota Center to the much smaller Reliant Arena could help the atmosphere for home games, and an extra year of seasoning for head coach Karleen Thompson should also be a positive. But it still feels like they’re papering over the large cracks in a struggling, aging roster. They might float around .500 and could even put up a mild fight for the fourth playoff spot, but it’s been a while since the Comets were a dominant force in the WNBA, and it seems like it’s going to be some time before they are again.

 

Significant additions: Candace Parker, DeLisha Milton-Jones, Marie Ferdinand-Harris, Shannon Bobbitt, hopefully a healthy Temeka Johnson, and the small matter of Lisa Leslie (well, she’s an ‘addition’ to last year’s squad)
Significant losses: Taj McWilliams-Franklin, LaToya Thomas, maybe Marta Fernandez, Mwadi Mabika

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Temeka Johnson
SG: Marie Ferdinand-Harris
SF: DeLisha Milton-Jones
PF: Candace Parker
C: Lisa Leslie

Bench includes: Sidney Spencer, Christi Thomas, Bobbitt, Marta Fernandez if she shows up, Sherill Baker

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Second Coming! Well, okay, not quite, but if you listen to the hype it’s not far off. And I’m not talking about Leslie’s little baby Lauren. In something reminiscent of the year the NBA’s San Antonio Spurs lost David Robinson through injury and used their only bad year in a decade to luck into Tim Duncan in the draft, Lisa Leslie’s timely pregnancy (and Chamique Holdsclaw’s umpteenth implosion) led Candace Parker to Hollywood. Women’s basketball’s latest, greatest star (since the last one) joins Leslie in a frontcourt for the ages, but with practically a brand new starting five in LA, the question remains just how good they can be.

The answer is likely to be pretty good. Although history shows that most players take a while to come back fully from pregnancy, Leslie isn’t just any player, and is likely to be a force this season, even if not quite the overpowering presence she once was. Parker may have a growing pain or two acclimatizing to playing at WNBA level game in and game out, but she was more than ready for this league last year, let alone with an extra year of seasoning and another NCAA title under her belt. The one real question for both Leslie and Parker is health. Leslie has been playing for a while now and appears to be back in game shape, but breaking down is always a possibility after so long off the court. Parker acquired a shoulder injury at the Final Four and has had very little downtime in recent years due to commitments with Tennessee and Team USA, and now heads straight into a WNBA season and the Olympic Games with minimal rest. They’ll probably be fine but coach Michael Cooper will have to manage their minutes to try and avoid either hitting a wall before the playoffs kick in.

Cooper has a pretty decent amount of post depth to work with to help keep his stars’ minutes under control. A trade with Washington brought back DeLisha Milton-Jones, Leslie’s former partner in crime from LA’s championship days. Milton-Jones was awful last season in Washington, but that was a dysfunctional team where she no longer seemed to fit. In Los Angeles, she may well be a better fit than Taj McWilliams-Franklin, the player traded away for her. Milton-Jones and Parker give Cooper fluidity and options at the forward spots, with both able to play at either position, and the defensive combination of Milton-Jones, Parker and Leslie is an imposing prospect. Hopefully Milton-Jones’s shot selection will improve now that there are stronger frontcourt options alongside her than she became used to in Washington. Christi Thomas is a decent backup post as well, and even the likes of Murriel Page and Jessica Moore can offer some cover from the bench. Few teams in this league have this much frontcourt strength.

The one drawback of the trade is that it could limit the minutes of Sidney Spencer, the one positive to emerge from LA’s shambles of a season last year. McWilliams-Franklin would’ve split minutes inside with Parker and Leslie, whereas Milton-Jones will take away more minutes at small forward that could’ve gone to Spencer. She’s not really quick enough to guard shooting guards, but they’ll need to find ways to get her time on the floor, because she’s practically the only three-point threat on the roster. They’ll need her out there to spread the floor for their multiple inside scorers.

The real open questions for the Sparks are in the backcourt, where questions remain about whether they’re good enough to keep some of the pressure off Parker, Leslie and Milton-Jones. While their frontcourt wasn’t of quite the same quality, last season’s Houston Comets showed what happens when top-level post scorers are paired with an atrocious backcourt – you lose a lot of games. LA’s backcourt should be just about good enough to avoid those problems. Diminutive point-guard Temeka Johnson is back to run the offense after struggling when she returned late last season following microfracture surgery, and should be much improved. She’ll need to show the ability to hit the open jump shot to keep defenses honest, but considering just how open she’ll be with teams worrying about Leslie and Parker, her shooting percentage should drift back up towards the 45 percent she managed her rookie year in Washington in 2005. Marie Ferdinand-Harris was signed from San Antonio to help at the off guard spot, arguably more in hope than realistic expectation. She had a very poor year in San Antonio last season returning from pregnancy, and it’s been a long time since she put up impressive scoring numbers. The Sparks will be hoping for a bounce-back year now that she’s further removed from having her baby, and like Johnson she’ll get good looks while defenses focus on her teammates, but that didn’t seem to help her much last season when Becky Hammon and Sophia Young were drawing all the attention for the Silver Stars. Backcourt alternatives like Sherill Baker and rookie Shannon Bobbitt don’t offer Cooper much else worth turning to, especially on offense, which may see Sidney Spencer getting time at shooting guard, although that could lead to some problems at the defensive end of the floor. Marta Fernandez, who showed some skills in her first WNBA season last year but tailed off badly in the second half, may well miss this season playing for the Spanish national team.

The Sparks are going to be good. The frontcourt talent of Parker and Leslie, which will probably be the same starting combination that we’ll see for Team USA in Beijing, is just too strong. Cooper’s shown in the past that he can win when given the talent to work with, and this year he’s got it. There are questions about their outside shooting and the small stature of their point guards (Bobbitt’s even more of a munchkin than Johnson) but the Parker/Leslie/Milton-Jones trio alone makes them a threat to top the Western Conference. And even if they experience some growing pains while they work in so many new players, no one will want to see them if they’re a lower seed entering the playoffs.

 

Significant additions: Candice Wiggins, Anna DeForge, Nicky Anosike, Kristen Rasmussen, Vanessa Hayden-Johnson (back from pregnancy)
Significant losses: Kristen Mann, Amber Jacobs, Tamika Raymond, the hope that the ping-pong balls might help them out

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Lindsey Harding(/Noelle Quinn)
SG: Candice Wiggins
SF: Seimone Augustus
PF: Nicky Anosike
C: Nicole Ohlde

Bench includes: Quinn, DeForge, Eshaya Murphy, Tiffany Stansbury, Hayden, Rasmussen

Oh, Minnesota. Poor, poor Minnesota. For several years now they’ve had a gaping, desperate, blindingly obvious need for a true post presence. Someone who could score inside would’ve been nice, but most of all just someone who’d defend the paint, rebound, and provide some sort of deterrent in the lane. And after a 2007 Lynx season riddled with growing pains for their very young roster, they headed into the lottery knowing they had the equal highest chance at either of the two franchise post players that would be taken with the top two picks. And they got #3. Candice Wiggins isn't a bad consolation prize, but for a team that really, really needed a post player, it just didn’t seem fair. Now they’ve got more perimeter talent than they know what to do with, but the patchwork attempts to fill the hole inside continue, and as long as that’s the case, their struggles are likely to persist as well.

Seimone Augustus, offensively, is an elite talent in this league and probably hasn’t gotten enough credit for being just that. In only her second year in the league last season she shot over 50 percent from the floor, nearly 42 percent from three-point range and over 87 percent from the line. Those numbers are ridiculous, especially for a player on a team that played poorly most of the year, had inconsistent and inexperienced point guard play, and practically no post production at all. Her defense is still a work in progress, and she can still improve her distribution and ability to create for others, but as a pure scorer she’s probably the single best perimeter player in the league. With Svetlana Abrosimova staying in Russia to prepare for the Olympics this year, Augustus will likely find herself at small forward more than shooting guard, but that should be a pretty straightforward transition for someone with her talent. The two main additions to the battery of Lynx guards this season should only make Augustus’s job easier by forcing defenses to focus on her slightly less. Anna DeForge gives this very young team some veteran leadership and hopefully brings her play from Indiana’s playoff run last season. Her regular season was entirely forgettable but she stepped it up remarkably in the postseason and the Lynx will hope that that’s the DeForge they’re getting. Candice Wiggins brings her scoring from the college ranks and may immediately force DeForge to the bench despite her veteran status and the maximum salary that it likely took to lure her from the Fever. Wiggins and Augustus will form a scarily athletic and dangerous pairing on the wing, which could compensate for some of the holes to be found elsewhere. Eshaya Murphy was starting to show some signs of being a reasonable backup on the wing last season as well, and only adds further to their depth.

At point guard Minnesota appears to have more options than most, but plenty of questions remain. Lindsey Harding was the first overall pick last year and the presumptive ‘point guard of the future’, but after a relatively underwhelming 20 games while she got to grips with the league she blew out her knee and missed the rest of the season. She’s now picked up another injury to the same knee and was declared out ‘indefinitely’ by the Lynx, although recent reports claim she might only miss the first four weeks or so of the season. Complicating matters further, the Lynx actually improved after Harding went down last season, allowing fellow rookie Noelle Quinn to move to what appears to be her natural position at the point. Quinn had some problems with her ballhandling and desperately needs to improve her shooting, but her distribution and game management was a significant improvement on Harding’s and made you wonder who’d win the spot if both were around this year. If they could combine the two (and preferably add their woeful shooting percentages together) the Lynx would have a perfect point guard. Until medical science develops that far or one of them makes a leap forward (while staying healthy), the point guard spot in Minnesota will remain intriguing but decidedly unsettled.

And now back to the crux of the matter. The Lynx are a donut: yummy and sweet on the outside, with a great big hole in the middle. Rebounding, post defense, and post offense were their biggest problems last year, and little has changed. Nicole Ohlde has been doing her best for four years now but she doesn’t get much help and it’s hindered her development. Her shooting took a nosedive last season as she seemed to move further and further away from the basket, despite being 6-5 and the Lynx needing her inside. Alongside her the Lynx have several options but can’t have too much confidence in any of them. Tiffany Stansbury, a free agent pickup last season, showed some signs of being a big body that could at least help out. Second round draft pick Nicky Anosike could fill a similar role, hopefully at a slightly higher level. Another option is Vanessa Hayden-Johnson, who missed last year due to pregnancy, a huge but enigmatic presence in her previous attempts with Minnesota. Just to add yet more mediocre depth, Kristen Rasmussen, a career backup, has arrived from Connecticut in a trade that offloaded what was left of Tamika Raymond. With Abrosimova and Kristen Mann both gone from last year’s squad there are considerable minutes available at power forward/center on this squad, but unless Anosike proves to be an absolute steal with the 16th overall pick in the draft it could be hard work finding anyone who deserves all that many of them.

The Lynx should actually be an interesting team to watch this season. The young, emerging talent, led by Augustus and Wiggins, will be fun to see flying down the court and shooting at will. The point guard tandem, if Harding can get healthy and stay that way, is a fascinating contrast in styles that could combine nicely if Don Zierden can find a way to use both of them. But they’ve got the least talented group of posts in the league, and it’s not even all that close (except for Atlanta, who doesn’t count, and probably have more talent anyway). I’d love to see them prove me wrong, but barring a big trade it looks like another trip to the lottery and more prayers to the ping-pong ball gods for the Lynx.

 

Significant additions: LaToya Pringle, Le’Coe Willingham, Barbara Farris
Significant losses: PENNY TAYLOR, Kelly Schumacher, Belinda Snell, coach Paul Westhead

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Kelly Miller
SG: Cappie Pondexter
SF: Diana Taurasi
PF: Eeeeeeeeeek!
C: Tangela Smith

Bench includes: Kelly Mazzante, Pringle, Willingham, Farris (one of whom will have to start, obviously), Jennifer Derevjanik

Remember Marlon Brando as Stanley Kowalski in the classic film version of ‘A Streetcar Named Desire’? That’s what springs to mind when I think of Mercury fans in recent weeks, but instead of anguished cries of “Stella!” it’s screams of “Penny!” that have rent the air in Phoenix (in my overactive imagination, at least). Penny Taylor and the Mercury recently announced that Taylor will miss at least the pre-Olympic part of the WNBA season to rest and train with the Australian national team, which in practice means no Taylor for a minimum of 27 of the 34 regular season games. A legitimate MVP candidate in 2007, Taylor made a lot of what Phoenix did last season possible, and without her it’s going to be very, very difficult to repeat the feats of a year ago.

Of course, the 2007 WNBA Champions still have a whole host of talent on their roster, bringing back practically all the other perimeter players from the squad that won that ring last year. Kelly Miller is the consummate point guard for their helter-skelter run-and-gun system, pushing the ball as much as possible, willing to take a backseat to the stars alongside her but capable of hitting her shots when they’re there to be hit. Cappie Pondexter is an outstanding talent at the off-guard spot, capable of creating her own shot whenever she wants and getting to the rim at will. She’s one of those few players that even dyed-in-the-wool, WNBA-hating NBA fans will watch and immediately enjoy for her athleticism and innate ability with the ball in her hands. And at the head of it all, leading the Mercury with her superior skills and Energizer bunny mouth, is Diana Taurasi. Her ability to score from anywhere on the court at any time is her most noticeable attribute, but her distribution and general all-around offensive game make her a nightmare match-up for anyone in the league. Kelly Mazzante showed last season that she’s a useful backup to either Pondexter or Taurasi on the perimeter, and she’ll be relied upon to repeat that, especially as Belinda Snell, their other sharpshooter off the bench, will be back in Australia with Taylor. Jennifer Derevjanik will again be a perfectly acceptable backup for Miller whenever called upon to help out at the point.

Here’s where things get worrisome for the Mercury. Although she’s a prototypical small forward, in Phoenix’s frenetic ‘PaulBall’ system Taylor was the perfect ‘power’ forward, working tirelessly inside against much bigger players and creating countless mismatches when she had the ball in her hands. She’s also one of the best finishers in the league when she gets inside, showing a repeated ability the snake to the rim and complete the basket, regardless of how much contact she might take on the way. Without her, it’s going to be hard for Phoenix to compensate. Tangela Smith had a successful first year as a ‘center’ in Phoenix, despite her natural instincts to play like a wing, and the reliance on her to play defense and rebound will only grow with Taylor out of the mix. The fifth spot on the floor is still up in the air. Barbara Farris and Le’Coe Willingham have been brought in to add some beef to the post situation, but Farris is aging and was mired on the bench in New York last season, while Willingham was hardly setting the world on fire in limited minutes in Connecticut. They should be able to replace Kelly Schumacher’s production from last year, but that would still leave the Taylor-sized hole. The Merc were delighted that LaToya Pringle fell to them with the 13th pick in the draft and she’ll quickly get the chance to prove herself, but to expect a rookie to replace one of the best players in the world would be pure folly.

New Mercury coach Corey Gaines, an assistant in Phoenix last year and a Paul Westhead disciple, is expected to run much the same system that brought Phoenix a championship last season. It seems like the perfect situation for a new guy to be in, taking over a successful team rather than a poor one like most new head coaches do, but he’s facing some difficult challenges. Phoenix got through last season despite playing next-to-no defense and being a truly atrocious rebounding team, and he’s lost one of his best defenders and leading rebounders. They were also remarkably healthy last year, a situation which doesn’t tend to last in the WNBA, and with Taylor, Snell, and Schumacher gone they have even less depth than last year. They still have so much talent, however, that it’s hard to see them out of the playoff picture, even in the powerful Western Conference. If they can hold onto one of the lower playoff spots though the first 27 games, and Taylor comes back for the stretch run post-Beijing, they could be the most dangerous 3rd or 4th seed the WNBA has ever seen heading into the playoffs.

 

Significant additions: Laura Harper
Significant losses: Yolanda Griffith, DeMya Walker (again), Kristin Haynie

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Ticha Penicheiro
SG: Chelsea Newton
SF: Nicole Powell
PF: Rebekkah Brunson
C: Adrian Williams-Strong

Bench includes: Kara Lawson, Harper, La’Tangela Atkinson, Scholanda Robinson

Now here’s a team that are desperately relying on the belief that ‘improvement comes from within’. All the teams around them in the West have made moves to try and get better (apart from Phoenix) while the Monarchs lost their long-time leader to free agency, a key piece to injury (yet again), and their backup point guard to expansion. All that’s been added is Laura Harper, their first round draft pick, and a bunch of third-rounders. They’ve still got a decent amount of talent, and they’ve been a solid playoff team for several years, but when you stand still on the treadmill you tend to get thrown off the back.

If you think way back to opening day last season (it seems so long ago), the starting Monarchs post tandem was DeMya Walker and Yolanda Griffith. Neither will be suiting up in Monarchs purple this year. Griffith packed up her bags and moved to Seattle for one last crack at a title, while Walker succumbed to injury yet again before even making it to Sacramento for training camp. They’re both good players who’ll be missed, but Walker missed the vast majority of last season anyway, so they’re used to doing without her, and Griffith’s leadership and personality may be a greater loss than her play at this stage of her career. Fortunately for the Monarchs, Rebekkah Brunson picked last season to finally make the leap into being a consistent post presence and scoring threat night in and night out. With Griffith gone and alternatives limited, Brunson may find herself playing at center a fair amount this season, where she’s undersized, but you won’t find a more hard-nosed, battling, physical post presence outside of a healthy Cheryl Ford. Unless Harper proves herself ready in training camp, Adrian Williams-Strong will probably start at center, but in truth she’s never proven herself to be above backup quality in this league (and hasn’t played more than 18 minutes per game in four years). That’ll leave ample opportunity for Harper to stake her claim, and for the likes of La’Tangela Atkinson and even third-round rookie Izabela Piekarska to push for minutes at the forward spots. It’s definitely a work in progress with Walker and Griffith out of the picture.

In small lineups Nicole Powell may find herself at power forward at times this year, although her central offensive talents remain in roaming the perimeter at the small forward spot. Her overall shooting percentages aren’t that impressive, but she’s a streaky shooter who can sometimes light it up from outside and who defenses always have to be aware of, as well as a good rebounder for her size and position. The other wing options are identical to last year’s and as Einstein might have reminded us, bringing back the same pieces and expecting any different results would be the definition of insanity. Chelsea Newton is their defensive stopper and regular starter, but her offensive deficiencies limit her effectiveness and her minutes. Scholanda Robinson is a quick and athletic option but has yet to prove herself any more than a change of pace off the bench. Kara Lawson, on the other hand, is probably now the emotional leader of this team with Griffith having disappeared up the West Coast. She comes off the bench and takes a lot of shots, but in recent years, while her shot attempt numbers have gone up and she’s been relied upon more, her percentages have been coming down. With Haynie gone, she’ll probably be used as the backup point guard as well, which is distinctly not her natural spot and doesn’t help her rhythm or her scoring. If she and Powell can up their percentages it would be a huge help to the Monarchs, but with Griffith gone and the consequent decrease in the inside threat, they’re likely to be taking just as many heavily contested shots as they have the last couple of years.

The shots for the likes of Powell and Lawson would get easier if their long-time floor leader, Ticha Penicheiro, could force defenses to pay more attention to her. At one time as good a passer and distributor as you’re ever likely to see, she’s been in the league a decade now and in truth she’s never been able to shoot. However, as age and injuries have slowed her down somewhat and limited her ability to beat opponents off the dribble and get to the rim, her shooting ineptitude has become more and more glaring. Her minutes have come down in recent years, but with Haynie gone and the rest of the roster pretty thin, she may need to play more than the 24 minutes per game of last season. Unless she can prove she can hit the occasional shot, defenses will continue to sag off her and make things more difficult for her teammates. And unless rookie third-rounder A’Quonesia Franklin quickly makes the grade, Penicheiro’s only backup at the point is Lawson, a sight which won’t be striking much fear into the hearts of opposing teams.

Sacramento still has a shot at making the playoffs yet again, but it’s only getting tougher. In her second year in charge, young coach Jenny Boucek should have a better grip on her roster and her system, but whether the talent’s there to keep winning in a difficult conference is questionable. Despite her diminishing physical abilities, Griffith was still the mental and vocal leader of this squad and little has been done to replace her or Walker. It’s probably a rebuilding year for the Monarchs, but their physical, hard-edged play may well keep them in the battle for that 4th playoff spot for much of the year.

 

Significant additions: Ann Wauters, Edwige Lawson-Wade
Significant losses: Camille Little, Marie Ferdinand-Harris, Chantelle Anderson

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Helen Darling
SG: Becky Hammon
SF: Vickie Johnson
PF: Sophia Young
C: Ann Wauters

Bench includes: Ruth Riley, Erin Buescher, Shanna Crossley, Lawson

Every year, in every sport, there’s a fashionable ‘sleeper’ pick at the start of the season that isn’t really a sleeper because everyone and their mom is picking them anyway. Allow me to introduce this year’s WNBA example, your 2008 San Antonio Silver Stars, who’ve added veteran Euro post Ann Wauters and might have just a little too much talent to really be any kind of sleeper. Somewhere between the superstars of LA and Seattle, and the no-defense scoring machine in Phoenix, we find the quiet presence of San Antonio, building on their surprising season of a year ago and threatening to sneak in and upset every last one of them.

Dan Hughes turned over most of his roster last year and with that managed to change the entire atmosphere and perspective of the franchise. Winning is a habit, and it was one the Silver Stars finally managed to acquire in 2007. The biggest move was bringing in Becky Hammon from New York, who again will be the focal point around which the team revolves. Once Hughes realized he needed to move her away from the point guard spot and let the likes of Helen Darling and Vickie Johnson initiate the offense, Hammon flourished and had her best season yet as a pro, finishing second in MVP voting and leading the league in assists per game. It’d be nice if the four turnovers per game would come down a little (and her defense has always been poor), but Hammon’s ability to score from anywhere and create buckets for herself and her teammates is what pushed the Silver Stars forward an extra step last year. Alongside her, Darling played surprisingly well last season once moved into the starting lineup. She doesn’t have to do too much with all the talent surrounding her and quietly fills her role when called upon. Edwige Lawson-Wade, a teammate of Hammon’s at CSKA Moscow in Russia, has also been brought in to add extra competition and depth at the point, and if she can replicate her production in Europe rather than her disappointing previous WNBA stints she’ll be a useful bonus. Losing Marie Ferdinand-Harris to Los Angeles in free agency hurts their depth a little at off-guard, but she was so poor last season that San Antonio is unlikely to miss her much. Shanna Crossley moved past her in the rotation last season anyway and showed signs of becoming more than just a long-range bomber. Distance shooting is still Crossley’s main skill, but if she can continue to develop her ball-handling and all-around game, she’ll be a solid backup for Hammon and a dangerous weapon off the pine.

After 12 years in the league, it feels like Vickie Johnson’s been around forever, and she’s the calming veteran influence on this ball club. She knows when to push and when to sit back and let her teammates go to work, and her ability to play any of the perimeter spots gives Hughes flexibility and fluidity in how he uses his roster. She might be a little overpaid these days judged purely by her numbers, but to this franchise her experience and presence remains invaluable. The other options at small forward in San Antonio are complicated because none of them are really naturals at the position, but they didn’t have much trouble navigating that issue last year. Although trading away Camille Little cuts into his options somewhat, when Hughes is going small Johnson can play the three (or even Kendra Wecker if she finally steps up this season), and when he wants to go big Erin Buescher and Sophia Young give him strong alternatives. After an impressive start in San Antonio, Buescher tore her ACL halfway through last season and has been rehabbing through the entire offseason. It remains to be seen how healthy she’ll be this year, but she’s the kind of player whose energy and hustle inspire her teammates and brings the crowd to life. Her skills have come on in leaps and bounds the last couple of years and if she can stay fit she’ll be a huge plus for the Silver Stars.

Young, alongside Hammon, is the bedrock that Hughes has built his team around. After only two years in the WNBA, she’s already one of the top power forwards in the league and still getting better, and she adds an impressive shot of youthful talent to what is largely a veteran-laden roster. The range on her jump shot is still a little limited, however, and moving her away from the basket to small forward would limit the effectiveness of her post moves and rebounding ability. Most of her minutes will probably still be found at power forward except when matchups present the opportunity to go to a triple-post offense.

For the second year in a row, Hughes made a big move on draft day that had nothing to do with selecting any rookies. A trade with Atlanta brought center Ann Wauters back to the WNBA after a two-year hiatus since her last appearance with New York. In Europe she’s a top-level post scorer and a key part of CSKA Moscow’s exceedingly strong roster (it’s like San Antonio and Moscow have set up an exchange program this year). She also showed an ability to play at a high level in the WNBA when she was in the US before with New York and Cleveland, although that was combined with a disturbing propensity to get injured on a regular basis. If she can stay healthy she’ll give the Silver Stars an elite interior rotation that very few teams can compete with. Last year’s starter at center, Ruth Riley, will still get plenty of minutes both backing up Wauters and playing alongside her as a ‘twin tower’. Riley’s shot selection was awful last year, but her hard work setting screens and doing the unseen dirty work is important to the team, as is her much-needed interior defense. Behind Wauters and Riley, coach Hughes will be hoping everyone else stays healthy enough that Sandora Irvin, an unadulterated bust since being the third overall pick in the 2005 draft, never leaves the bench.

Multiple injuries to important pieces hurt the Silver Stars’ chances of advancing in last year’s playoffs, as did running into the Mercury juggernaut just as Phoenix was hitting their stride. This season, health permitting, they look likely to pose even more of a threat. The addition of Wauters gives them another post presence and has the added benefit of being one that their leader, Hammon, is already familiar with from her exploits overseas. Young gives them a developing star and Hammon an established one. The Silver Stars are poised to be up and around the top of the Western Conference and make some noise in the playoffs, and anyone who’s still sleeping on them needs to wake up fast.

 

Significant additions: The 1999 All-WNBA First Team! Kidding, Seattle fans, kidding. Please don’t hate me. Sheryl Swoopes, Swin Cash, Yolanda Griffith.
Significant losses: Janell Burse, Betty Lennox, Iziane Castro Marques, Wendy Palmer

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Sue Bird
SG: Sheryl Swoopes
SF: Swin Cash
PF: Lauren Jackson
C: Yolanda Griffith

Bench includes: Katie Gearlds, Ashley Robinson, Tanisha Wright, lots and lots of physiotherapists and trainers

Remember when Gary Payton and Karl Malone signed with Kobe and Shaq’s LA Lakers in a desperate attempt to win an NBA Championship before they retired? Four Hall-of-Famers on one squad worked fairly well all season until the Finals, where they ran into a younger, healthier Detroit Pistons squad that unexpectedly ripped them to pieces in only five games. Although some elements of the comparison are unfair, this Storm squad sure feels a lot like that Lakers roster. New independent ownership, a new head coach/GM in Brian Agler, and the big-name acquisitions of Swin Cash, Sheryl Swoopes and Yolanda Griffith have rightly revitalized the Storm fanbase, but now we have to see if a roster stacked with vastly talented but injury-prone players can hold it all together through thirty-four regular season games and into the playoffs.

Before even contemplating the new pieces, the most important news of the offseason in Seattle was that Lauren Jackson, almost unequivocally the best female basketball player in the world, was going to show up this year. She could’ve taken the season off to rest and prepare for the Olympics in Australia (as Penny Taylor did in Phoenix), but instead she’s agreed to play for the Storm until a little before the Olympic break, and should miss only five games. Jackson’s statistical production the last couple of years has gone from excellent to completely insane, last year leading the league in scoring at nearly 24 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three-point range and 88 percent from the line. For good measure she led the league in rebounding with nearly ten per game and won the Defensive Player of the Year award on top of the MVP. She’s frighteningly good, and with four scrubs around her this team would still have a shot at the playoffs. She’s played a lot of basketball in recent years and has had injury problems in the past (which she’s typically played through regardless of the pain), but those seem to have dissipated somewhat and hopefully she’ll continue to showcase her remarkable abilities as the pivotal figure of the newly rebuilt Storm lineup.

Alongside Jackson for years as the center in Seattle has been Janell Burse, but Jackson will have to get used to a new partner down low this season. Burse and the Storm announced that she’d be missing the year due to a variety of injuries, and it leaves Seattle looking a little thin in the paint. Yolanda Griffith is the obvious replacement after signing as a free agent from Sacramento, but Yo ain’t quite what she used to be. One of the best centers the women’s game has ever seen in her prime, Griffith’s capabilities dropped significantly her last couple of years with the Monarchs. She’s still a presence inside, but age and nagging injuries have caught up with her to some extent, and to expect any more than the 25 minutes per game she played last year would be excessively optimistic. That may even be too much in itself. Ashley Robinson, probably the next post on the depth chart, is barely backup quality even in a league with very limited options for centers. What we’ll probably see a lot of this season is Agler going to smaller lineups with Jackson at center and Swin Cash at power forward, but if LJ has to spend too much time banging around inside she’ll wear down over the season and that’s something Seattle can ill-afford.

Cash and Sheryl Swoopes combine to give Seattle a brand new partnership on the wing and probably a significant upgrade on Betty Lennox and Iziane Castro Marques from last season, if the new arrivals stay healthy. Neither Lennox nor Castro Marques missed a single game the last two years, something that would be a distinct surprise if it were repeated by Swoopes and Cash. Swoopes is a star; a former MVP, an unquestioned all-time great of the women’s game, and once the best player in the game. But she’s also 37 years old, and she’s played a total of three games of professional basketball in the last 18 months. If she can stay on the court, even a Sheryl Swoopes who’s a couple of steps slower than back in the old days is a player worth having, but is that really likely? She already picked up a minor shoulder injury and an ankle sprain in preseason and little dings like that could hinder her progress throughout the year, even if a major injury doesn’t occur. Cash has been largely healthy since recovering from her catastrophic knee injury a few years ago, and provides Seattle with a strong veteran presence at the forward spots. She certainly seems more dependable than anything they could’ve gotten with the 4th overall draft pick they traded away for her, although it adds to the impression that this franchise is very much in ‘Win Now!’ mode. She’s never seemed to be quite the player she was before her injury, but that may have been in part due to other players surpassing her in importance in Detroit while she was hurt. A new start in a new city with a coach she doesn’t despise could be just the breath of fresh air she needs.

The backups to Cash and Swoopes are of questionable quality, which is why their health is so vital. Tanisha Wright has been disappointing her first three years in the league, but may improve if Agler has the sense to never use her at the point guard spot. Impressive numbers in Europe suggest the talent to be Lennox-lite could be in her, but she needs to translate that across to the WNBA or she’ll be out of the league by next year. Katie Gearlds had a quiet rookie season last year after then-head coach Anne Donovan seemed to lose any faith in her halfway through. Hopefully her shooting ability can be of use to Seattle this season, especially as that isn’t a particular strength of either Swoopes or Cash.

At the point guard spot is still everyone’s favorite fresh-faced All-American girl-next-door, Sue Bird. Although seemingly less willing to drive the lane and break down defenses than in her first few WNBA seasons (which has cut into her statistical production a little), Bird is still an elite point guard. Her defensive deficiencies are noticeable at times, but hopefully the new additions on the roster will help compensate. She hasn’t had a proper backup since Tully Bevilaqua left for Indiana three years ago, so Seattle will be hoping that third-round draft pick Kimberly Beck can prove to be a solid reserve. Given more minutes to rest, or even the opportunity to play some off guard and look for her own offense, could give Bird some new life at the helm of this team.

Seattle is a threat. Any team with the best player in the world, Team USA’s starting point guard, a key part of Detroit’s championship teams, and two other former league MVPs would have to be. Like Dan Hughes creating a new atmosphere in San Antonio last season by changing most of the roster, Agler has changed things around and brought in veterans who know how to win to re-energize this franchise. Even Agler himself should be a refreshing change from Anne Donovan’s sometimes bemusing coaching moves. If they can stay healthy they’re a legitimate title contender, and if just Jackson is healthy she’ll drag them into the playoffs with minimal assistance. However, the roster looks really thin behind all those vets and key injuries at vital times could easily be their undoing.

 

Richard Cohen is a freelance contributor to SPM and can be contacted by clicking on the byline at the top of this article.